Zuckarelli, Joachim (2015): A new method for quantification of qualitative expectations. Economics and Business Letters 3(5), Special Issue Energy demand forecasting, 123-128.
For many research purposes it is necessary to quantify qualitative inflation or other expectations from consumer or business surveys. The standard quantification method that is widely referred to in the literature for qualitative inflation expectations is the Carlson-Parkin method, with various extensions. This study proposes a novel quantification method that connects the survey respondents’ inflation experience with forward looking information. The article outlines the new approach and applies it exemplarily to qualitative inflation survey data for the Euro area and the United States.
The new Conditional Expectations (CE) method is implemented in the R Package 'quantification'.
Formate: Taschenbuch (366 Seiten), Amazon Kindle eBook
This package provides different functions for quantifying qualitative survey data. It currently supports the Carlson-Parkin method, the regression approach and the balance approach.
These methods are usually applied in economics to quantify qualitative inflation expectations collected through surveys (e.g. consumer surveys). However, the same approaches can be used to quantify any qualitative expectation about the change of a variable that is actually quantitative in nature. All methods provided by the R package ‘quantification’ can be parametrized in various ways to customize them for individual use.
Download the package on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).
Your questions, suggestions and comments are appreciated. When you contribute ideas that are implemented in further releases of the package, you will be mentioned as a contributor. Also, if you have any questions how to work with the package functions, please let me know.
Working paper: Alternative indifference limens for the Carlson-Parkin method (click title to download as PDF)
This paper proposes an enhancement to the well-known Carlson-Parkin method for the quantification of qualitative inflation expectations. The traditional approach makes use of information that is not available at the time of expectation formation, introduces an assumption hindering tests for unbiasedness of expectations and makes the quantification results depend on the timeframe over which expectations are quantified. This paper proposes an approach that does not suffer from these drawbacks. The main idea is to let the indifference limen, the central parameter in the Carlson-Parkin method, depend on past magnitudes of inflation change. The paper outlines the approach and demonstrates its application to Euro Area inflation expectation data.
Working paper: A short comment on Holden/Peel (1990): Defending the traditional test for unbiasedness of forecasts and expectations (click title to download as PDF)
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